Oh dear what can the matter be
Putin’s blinkered strategy
Has Balls up the economy…
It has been a savage few weeks for Russia’s popular leader ‘Vlad the Lad’ Putin. The continuing oil decline has compounded a weak Russian economy, Western sanctions and the Rouble's continual death spiral.
Putin’s Judo like maneuvers into Crimea and Ukraine has proved recklessness for the Western world, but righteous for dreamers of a greater Russia.
Whether this plan can succeed remains largely on the Russian pocket book; if a looming recession of pending misery can alter the hardy Russians point of view that will be the determining factor.
To remind us how we got here, you have cast back to a perceived weakness in the Obama administration and America’s war weary posture.
After being involved in two exhaustive wars there was no public appetite for further action in that region or anywhere for that matter.
Europe was grappling with a lingering recession and Russia’s oil and gas pipeline was threatening stability among weaker EU states.
Putin saw his chance to shore up citizen pride and galvanize Russian nationals in Crimea.
The Crimea is an essential part of the Putin plan having lost the Baltic’s in the breakup of the Soviet Union, it was crucial to house their southern naval fleet.
Other than protesting loudly Putin knew that the West couldn’t do much to a swift annexation.
Nevertheless when it came to the Ukraine things started to get complicated. NATO Expansion had spooked the Russians since 89’ and according to Putin Ukraine was the line in the sand.
The former President Viktor Yanukovych resistance to popular demands from the Ukrainian youth sided with Russian loan guarantees and his allegiance to Putin.
The Orange revolution eventually ousted him to the Crimea exposing lavish spoils of a kept puppet.
As the conflict in Ukraine merged into civil war, the downing of a commercial airliner, Malaysian of all things, highlighted the scorching denial Putin resides in.
The former KGB officer stoned faced refutation of culpably illustrated how isolated he was becoming.
The West’s introduction of sanctions rather than an armed response initially played into Putin’s thinking nonetheless as the Russian economy soured combined with the fall in oil and imposed sanctions, Putin’s folly was becoming evident.
Russia needs oil to be at $100 a barrel in order to balance the books; it has reserves of $400 billion but foreign debt of $600 billion.
The Saudis have said they will continue oil production with the possibility of prices dropping to $20 a barrel.
That is a mother load of pain coming Putin’s way and without question self inflicted.
The current situation is increasingly looking like the Bear Stearns and Lehman’s of Russia.
In addition, the Saudis aren’t too enthusiastic to help Russia with its oil problem, for Putin has sided with the Syrian dictator Basher al- Assad, because they have a naval fleet at the port of Tartus which is of vital importance to Russia.
The fact that Russia are purchasing aircraft carriers from France (which are on hold due to sanctions) illustrates how a mighty navy must go elsewhere for ships to be built.
While dividing up the spoils among his friends, Putin did nothing to reform the huge country with a large talent pool.
Instead he made sure the media was bought and any political agenda go unchallenged.
Oil adds up to ¾ of Russia’s exports and has not expanded its resources into a diverse economy for example, allowing an educated youth from the IT sector to exodus to Israel.
The fifty billion spent on the Winter Olympic Games sure could be needed now and underlines what can happen in a space of a year.
And like the Emperor with new clothes, Putin has a particular fondness for discarding clothing fit for media consumption.
Whether the Russian people can keep up the pretense remains to be seen.
